9.27.24 Tredas Weekly Recap
Weekly Action:
Corn Dec24 up 16 at $4.17
Beans Nov24 up 54 at $10.66
KC Wheat Dec24 up 13 $5.77
Hogs Oct24 down .20 at $82.025
Fats Oct24 up .135 at $183.825
Feeders Oct24 up 2.025 at $245.925
Corn Dec25 up 10 at $4.52
Beans Nov25 up 38 at $10.99
KC Wheat July25 up 14 at $6.06
Market Recap:
USDA will its Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary as of September 1 on Monday.
There is growing noise around a potential dock worker strike along the Eastern Seaboard, Mobile, AL and Houston, TX. If realized, it should not have much influence on U.S. grain exports. These locations only accounted for 1% of total corn exports, 5% of soybeans, and 10% of wheat last year.
Have we hit officially gotten past “harvest lows”??
Below is a December corn futures historical pattern. The Orange Line is October 1. So far, the low in December 24 corn has been $3.85 on August 26. Since then, we have added over 30 cents.
This is a very zoomed in look at the December24 corn chart. The main points of emphasis will be to see if corn can rise above the white line at around $4.21 (100 day moving average). If the market can sustain a close above $4.21(ish) the road “could” be cleared for a move to the 200-day moving average at $4.49. If we fail to achieve this, initial downside support is the 9-day moving average at $4.11. We have a very narrow range. Some would say the market is “coiling”. Generally, when the market is coiling it is prone to dramatic moves. The question is in which direction?
Below is a November soybean futures historical pattern. The Orange Line is October 1. So far, the lowest November24 beans have traded is $9.55 on August 16. We have rallied over $1 since then.
This is a very zoomed in look at the November24 soybean chart. Unlike corn, Nov soybeans were able to achieve a close above its 100-day moving average of $10.58 after failing to do so all week. The $10.58 level may now very well be the new “support” level. The 200-day average is sitting at $11.24 and could (hopefully) act as the next target for the board price.
The Commitment of Traders Report shows funds bought over 47,000 contracts, reducing their net short to -74,978 contracts. This represents nearly a 40% change in managed money positions from last week. Keep in mind, this information was collected as of Tuesday the 24th. November beans have rallied 20 cents since then. There will be a lot of focus on this report next week.
Weather:
The sexy news nationally centers around Hurricane Helene and anywhere between 1-4 inches is anticipated in parts of the Eastern corn belt over the weekend. The Western belt forecast is clear and should allow harvest to be full speed into late next week
Economy:
Teens are losing faith in college, per CNBC. Four years removed from the Covid, there are 900,000 fewer undergraduate students enrolled in college.
The 2024 U.S. Government deficit (operating budget, not total debt) is -$1.9 trillion, which is a 24% increase from this point last year.
The 30-Year Mortgage Rate is the lowest it’s been in 24 months, now at 6.08%. In related news, U.S. home prices continues to set new highs, rising 5% over the past year.
With three months to go, the S&P 500 is now over 300 points higher than the highest 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists and 18% above the average target.
Quote of the Week:
“He’s listed as day to day, but then again, aren’t we all?” – Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully
Something that probably means nothing:
In 1990, zero states had obesity rates over 20%.
In 2018, not one state has obesity rates below 20%.
